House Price Index in India (2025): Trends, Sources, Interpretation & Forecast

What is House Price Index (HPI)?

The House Price Index (HPI) is a statistical measure that tracks the changes in residential property prices over time. It is a crucial tool for homebuyers, real estate investors, financial advisors, developers, and policymakers, offering a data-driven lens to interpret market cycles, price trends, and investment potential. The HPI is typically calculated using transaction-level data from property registrations or developer sales, with a specific base year set to 100 for comparability. Unlike general real estate price averages, the HPI reflects weighted, systematic changes in prices across different cities and time periods, helping to gauge the health and direction of the housing market.

Who Publishes the HPI in India?

Reserve Bank of India (RBI): Publishes the official quarterly All-India HPI and city-wise indices based on transaction data from state registration authorities. The RBI’s HPI covers ten major cities and is widely regarded as the benchmark for property price movement in India.

National Housing Bank (NHB): Offers the NHB RESIDEX, India’s first official housing price index, covering over 50 cities. RESIDEX is based on primary market data from developers and is updated quarterly.

Private and Collaborative Indices: Housing.com-ISB HPI, PropTiger, and Trading Economics aggregate data for broader or more frequent reporting.

Latest Trends in HPI (As of 2025)

National Growth: The All-India HPI rose by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, up from 3.3% in the previous quarter, showing robust growth despite high interest rates and inflation.

Quarterly Momentum: Q1 FY2024-25 saw a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating positive momentum.

City Variations:

• Delhi: Led with a 14.9% annual HPI growth, reflecting strong demand and luxury segment expansion.
• Bengaluru, Chennai, Pune: Notched double-digit annual growth (10–16%).
• Kolkata: Saw a contraction of 6.6%, highlighting regional disparities.
• Urban vs Rural: Urban HPI growth outpaces rural areas due to higher demand, infrastructure, and investment focus.

City-Wise House Price Index (Detailed Breakdown)

City	HPI Value (Q4 2024, 2010-11=100)	YoY Growth (%)	Avg Price (INR/sq ft)	Commentary
Ahmedabad	351.44	10	4,402	Strong demand, infra push
Bengaluru	375.51	12	7,536	IT-driven, premium segment growth
Chennai	320.75	16	7,173	High appreciation, supply tightness
Delhi NCR	348.10	49	8,105	Luxury boom, HNI/NRI demand
Hyderabad	7,053 (price)	3	7,053	Plateau after decade-long surge
Kolkata	355.05	10	5,633	Recovery after contraction
MMR (Mumbai)	12,600 (price)	18	12,600	Metro, infra, and luxury drivers
Pune	7,108 (price)	16	7,108	IT, manufacturing, infra growth
Lucknow	417.80	—	—	Tier 2 leader, infra-led demand
Jaipur	183.63	—	—	Emerging market, moderate growth

Sources: RBI, NHB RESIDEX, PropTiger, Dataful, Q4 2024–25

Factors Affecting HPI in India

• Interest Rates: Higher RBI repo rates can slow demand and price growth; recent rate cuts in 2025 have supported a rebound.
• Demand-Supply Mismatch: Urbanization, migration, and limited new launches drive prices up in metros.
• Infrastructure: Metro, highways, and Smart Cities projects boost local HPIs.
• Government Policies: RERA, PMAY, GST, and FDI reforms impact market transparency and investor sentiment.
• Inflation & Construction Costs: Rising costs are passed on to buyers, supporting HPI growth.
• NRI & FDI Demand: Global capital flows into Indian real estate influence city-wise HPIs.

Historical Trends of HPI in India (2010–2025)

• 2010–2016: Double-digit annual growth, peaking at 26.3% in Q4 2011.
• 2017–2020: Slower growth (3.7% p.a.), impacted by demonetization, GST, and RERA.
• 2020–2022: COVID-19 dip, followed by a sharp rebound; HPI rose 4–11% in major cities in 2022.
• 2023–2025: Strong recovery, with national HPI up 4.3% in 2024 and forecasts of 6.5%+ for 2025.

House Price Index vs Real Estate Prices

• HPI is an index, not an absolute price: It measures percentage change from a base year, not the actual market price.
• Lag Effect: HPI is based on registered prices, which may understate actual transaction values due to cash components and reporting delays.
• Local Variability: HPI is an average; actual prices vary by locality, project, builder, and amenities.

How to Use HPI for Investment Decisions

• Long-Term Trends: Use HPI to identify high-growth cities and time your entry/exit.
• Market Timing: Rising HPI signals a seller’s market; stagnation or decline may indicate buying opportunities.
• Risk Assessment: Compare HPI with rental yields, stock indices, and inflation to assess risk-adjusted returns.
• Undervalued/Overvalued Markets: HPI can help spot regions where prices are lagging or overheating.

Global Comparison

India’s HPI (Q4 2024): 338.12 (2010=100), +3.1% YoY.

Other Markets:

• USA: +3.44% YoY
• UK: +3.64% YoY
• Germany: +1.94% YoY
• China: –8.57% YoY
• Turkey: +28.54% YoY (outlier, inflation-driven)

Context: India’s price growth is moderate globally, but city-level surges (Delhi +49%) rival the world’s hottest markets.

House Price Index Forecast (2025–2030)

• 2025–26: National HPI expected to rise 6.5–7.5%, led by Delhi NCR, Pune, Chennai, and Tier 2 cities.
• 2027–30: Growth to moderate to 5–6% per year as supply increases and affordability pressures mount.
• Drivers: Digital infrastructure, green buildings, REITs, and government housing schemes will shape future HPI trends.

Challenges & Limitations of HPI in India

• Data Lag: Quarterly updates mean HPI may lag behind real-time market changes.
• Data Quality: Registered prices may understate true market values due to cash transactions.
• Lack of Granularity: HPI averages may mask micro-market booms or busts within cities.
• Informal Transactions: Unregistered deals are not captured, skewing the index.

Top Sources to Track HPI in India (With Links)

• RBI HPI: rbi.org.in
• RESIDEX (NHB): residex.nhbonline.org.in
• PropTiger: proptiger.com
• Trading Economics: tradingeconomics.com
• Global Property Guide: globalpropertyguide.com
• Business-Standard (Housing.com-ISB HPI): business-standard.com
• Dataful: dataful.in

Conclusion

The House Price Index is a vital barometer of India’s residential market health, offering data-backed insights for diverse stakeholders. Tracking HPI helps decode city-level booms, manage investment risk, and monitor broader economic cycles—essential for anyone engaged in Indian real estate.

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